Which states are the most likely to go from Bush winning in 2004 to Obama winning in 2008, or Kerry winning in 2004 and McCain in 2008? This is in the scenario of an Obama/McCain race, based on 2004 results, polls, and trends:
5. Wisconsin was won by Kerry by a margin of 0.38% and McCain has held the lead in the last few polls. If McCain picks the right Vice-President, it could make him even more likely to win in this swing state.
4. New Hampshire is the primary state that saved McCain's bid, and ultimately made him the nominee. McCain is very popular here and his maverick style helps in this Independent minded state. New Hampshire was only won by 1% by Kerry in 2004, and McCain holds the polling lead.
3. Nevada was carried by Bush by 2.5%. Obama nearly won the state caucuses in January, when he was endorsed by the powerful culinary union, and he holds the lead in the latest poll.
2. Iowa had a huge turnout for Obama in the first in the nation vote, giving him first place. Iowa was carried by less than 1% in 2004 by Bush. Obama has held a small lead in polls. If Obama's Iowas turnout is as good this fall as it was last winter, Iowa is looking good for Obama.
1. New Mexico was carried by less than six-thousand votes in 2004 by Bush, a margin of less than 1%. Obama has led by a fairly comfortable margin in recent polls. Governor Bill Richardson is a possible Vice-Presidential choice, if he was picked it would almost certainly put New Mexico in the Democratic column.
If Clinton can stay alive long enough, I will be trying to rank states for a Clinton/McCain scenario soon.
5. Wisconsin was won by Kerry by a margin of 0.38% and McCain has held the lead in the last few polls. If McCain picks the right Vice-President, it could make him even more likely to win in this swing state.
4. New Hampshire is the primary state that saved McCain's bid, and ultimately made him the nominee. McCain is very popular here and his maverick style helps in this Independent minded state. New Hampshire was only won by 1% by Kerry in 2004, and McCain holds the polling lead.
3. Nevada was carried by Bush by 2.5%. Obama nearly won the state caucuses in January, when he was endorsed by the powerful culinary union, and he holds the lead in the latest poll.
2. Iowa had a huge turnout for Obama in the first in the nation vote, giving him first place. Iowa was carried by less than 1% in 2004 by Bush. Obama has held a small lead in polls. If Obama's Iowas turnout is as good this fall as it was last winter, Iowa is looking good for Obama.
1. New Mexico was carried by less than six-thousand votes in 2004 by Bush, a margin of less than 1%. Obama has led by a fairly comfortable margin in recent polls. Governor Bill Richardson is a possible Vice-Presidential choice, if he was picked it would almost certainly put New Mexico in the Democratic column.
If Clinton can stay alive long enough, I will be trying to rank states for a Clinton/McCain scenario soon.
1 comments:
In your poll you left out the biggest problem of America:
BIG GOVERNMENT!
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