The Expections Game and the Democratic Primary

Barack Obama was long expected to win the North Carolina primary easily and keep it close in Indiana.

Hillary Clinton however, took the lead in the polls in Indiana and closed the gap in North Carolina in the week or so preceding the primary voting, which caused heightened expectations for Clinton and lower expectations for Obama. This probably hurt the Clinton campaign because Obama ended up winning by double-digits in North Carolina and kept it close in Indiana.

This expectations game caused many pundits, pollsters, and politicians to be ready to declare Obama the nominee, also causing Superdelegates to move to Obama, completely erasing Clinton's previous Superdelegate lead.

However, the expectations game may swing in Clinton's favor. While a large part of the media etc. assume Obama is the nominee, and expect him to cruise through the rest of the primary, Clinton will likely win the West Virginia primary on Tuesday, maybe even by a huge margin. A big Clinton win may surprise many voters and give her new momentum heading into the important primaries in Oregon and Kentucky on May 20th (Super Tuesday IV anyone?).

With the momentum heading into the May 20th primaries, Clinton will likely win Kentucky and maybe keep the vote close in Oregon, although Obama will almost certainly hold on and win there. With those two wins for Clinton, who knows what could happen? The Florida and Michigan delegate controversies have yet to be decided, and Obama may not reach the required 2,025 delegates to win by then.