Monday, May 19, 2008

The Oregon Democratic Primary by Congressional District




In tomorrow's Democratic Presidential primary, 34 of Oregon's 52 pledged delegates will be awarded proportionally by Congressional district, with each district having a certain amount of delegates depending on the Democratic vote from that district in previous elections. Here is a look at each district:




District 1 has seven delegates. District one's Congressman David Wu has endorsed Obama, though it may not help much because Wu is not incredibly popular there. Obama should win this district: it has the smallest percentage of blue collar workers, a group that Clinton does well with, of all the Congressional districts in Oregon.




District 2 has five delegates, the smallest of any Oregon district, because of it's Republican lean. Clinton should expect to do well here since it is a rural district, where Clinton tends to do well in.




District 3 has nine delegates due to it's Democratic tilt. This district will likely lean towards Obama who tends to do well in urban districts such as this. Clinton may get a large share of the blue collar vote and Obama will likely easily win the black vote, which is the largest in the state. Obama is endorsed by Congressman Earl Blumenauer.




District 4 also has seven delegates. This district is hard to predict being part a rural district (where Clinton usually does well) and part a university town district (where Obama does well). Congressman Pete Defazio has endorsed Obama.




District 5 has six delegates. District five is a suburban district that is difficult to predict. Clinton is endorsed by Congresswoman Darlene Hooley and it has the largest Hispanic population (another group Clinton does well with) of any Oregon district.



Statewide, Obama leads 45%-41% in the latest poll, though he has been leading by a larger margin in most polls. Governor Ted Kulongoski has endorsed Clinton.






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3 comments:

GAIL MANZO said...

I SURE HOPE OREGON DOESNT FALL INTO THE OBAMA TRAP HE IS A FALSE HOPE A VOTE FOR OBAMA IS A WIN FOR MCCAIN OBAMA IS A FAKE AND FLASE PERSON

Anonymous said...

Gail Manzo,

You are an idiot. At least try and sound credible by using proper punctuation, etc. Obama's policies and beliefs are on the opposite side of the spectrum from John McCain's, so do not compare the two. Give the man a chance, especially since he has done nothing to prove that he doesn't deserve one. After all, he has had the right judgement from the start on multiple issues (the war, NAFTA). Relax.

Anonymous said...

A more thorough breakdown of the congressional districts can be found here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/