Now that the Democratic Presidential race is over (thank goodness!), we know it will be McCain and Obama in the general. Here are five states that President Bush carried in the 2004 election that Obama has a good chance to carry this November. 1 is the most likely Obama swing:
5. Nevada: Bush won here in 2004 by a narrow 2% margin. The Republican Governor, Jim Gibbons, has had a few controversies and is pretty unpopular, never helpful for the party. Though Obama didn't quite win the Nevada caucuses in January, he seems to remain popular here.
Latest poll: McCain 46%, Obama 40%
4. Ohio: The ultimate swing state looks like it will once again play a big role in the Presidential election. Bush got by with a 2% victory here in 2004. The Buckeye state is one of the states that have trended the most Democratic in the last few years: Republicans in this state lost the Governorship, a Senate seat, and a Congressional seat in 2006. Obama as the Democratic nominee is one factor that should help McCain. Clinton tends to be more popular with the demographics of Ohio and won easily in the primary there in March.
Latest poll: McCain 44%, Obama 40%
Latest poll: McCain 44%, Obama 40%
3. Colorado: Though Bush won here by 5% in 2004, Colorado has been trending Democratic: Democrats took a Senate seat in 2004, the Governorship and one Congressional seat in 2006, and they are likely to win the other Senate seat and perhaps another seat in Congress this year. Obama easily won the caucuses here on Super Tuesday.
Latest poll: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
2. New Mexico: If popular New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee, the Democrats may be unstoppable here. As it is, it may be tough for McCain to pull off a win here: Bush only won here by 1% and Richardson, as a popular Democratic Governor with a good political machine will be helpful for Obama here even if he is not the VP pick. Democrat Tom Udall is also favored to take a Republican Senate seat here.
Latest poll: Obama 44%, McCain 44%
1. Iowa: Obama's big win in the caucuses here in January was the start of his stunning victory over Clinton. Obama is popular here and spent a lot of time campaigning her for the primary. McCain on the other hand spent very little time here during the primary season, and opposes farm subsidies, which are very popular here. Bush carried the state by 1% in 2004.
Latest poll: Obama 47%, McCain 38%
3 comments:
I can appreciate your analysis, but I am still of the camp that Hillary is still out there, Obama screws up almost daily...
Polls are a face to face or phone to phone thing, it's hip to be for Obama now, like it was hip to listen to the Beatles back in the 60's, the privacy of a voting booth is another matter all together...
I honestly don't think he can win,,,, the problem I have with it is that McCain is going to side just enough with the socialist to screw up our way of life as we know it... the climate communism bill alone would hobble us...
Obama is on a roll! Obama is so hip we're selling his diluted breath. www.OBAMAir.com
Iowa really isn't a Republican state. The Gov's been a Democrat for the last ten years, Dems hold the State House and State Senate and in 2006 Dems picked up two House seats.
Iowa is probably about evenly split at this point, and probably going to go solidly back in the Dems column after 2008.
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