An Early Look at Oregon Senate Races (Pt. II)

Here is part two of the district-by-district look at the 2010 Oregon Senate races (this is part one):

District 15:

Moderate Republican Bruce Starr currently represents this district, which consists mostly of Hillsboro, also containing Cornelius, Forest Grove, and Norrth Plains. Starr should have an easy time winning re-election if he seeks it. If Starr decides not to run, the strongest candidate would probably be the winner of the State Rep election between Democrat David Edwards and Republican Andy Duyck. Also, Democrat Chuck Riley and Republican Jeff Duyck (if he lives in the district by then) could be good candidates.

District 16:

Incumbent Betsy Johnson has been mentioned as a possible Governor candidate, which would leave the seat open. She has also recently come under fire for ethics questions, and is under investigation by the FBI, making less likely she will run for Governor. This district is one of the oddest districts, it includes a lot of coastal areas, all of Clatsop and Columbia counties, and extends all the way into Multnomah and Washington counties. If Johnson runs for Governor, leaves because of ethics investigations, or decides not to run for other reasons, potential candidates include Democratic Reps Debbie Boone and Brad Witt and Clatsop county D.A. Ben Marquis. Johnson would probably win easily if she runs again, though her ethics issues certainly won't help. Republicans will need to recruit a very strong candidate to win in this liberal leaning district.

District 17:

Democrat Suzanne Bonamici was appointed to fill the vacancy left when Brad Avkian was named Labor Commissioner. She will probably win easily in the November special election, and it will be difficult for Republicans to defeat her in this Democratic district, which is comprised by a large part of Beaverton as well as part of Portland.

District 19:

This district is made up by the cities of Lake Oswego, Tualitan, and West Linn, spanning Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties. Senate Majority Leader Richard Devlin, a Democrat, is likely to run again here, and shouldn't face much difficulty. If Devlin does retire, there are plenty of potential candidates; Outgoing Rep Greg Macpherson, as well as House candidates Chris Garret and Linda Brown are all potential Democratic candidates. Potential Republicans include: Rep. Scott Bruun, House candidate Steve Griffith, Tualatuin Mayor Lou Ogden, former Rep Bob Tiernan, and businessman Jim Zupancic. This district is a tossup between the two parties.

District 20:

Incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader is the favorite to win in the open 5th Congressional district (in large part because of Republican Mike Erickson's issues). If Schrader does win, Democratic officials will submit three names to the Clackamas county Commissioners, who will appoint a replacement. The likeliest replacement is probably Schrader's wife Martha, who is currently a county commissioner. Bill Kennemer, a former State rep, Senator, and current county commissioner, who is favored to win a open House seat, would be a good candidate for Republicans. House Majority Leader Dave Hunt is unlikely to be interested.

District 24:

Rod Monroe is the Democratic incumbent in this east Multnomah district that contains part of Clackamas county as well. Monroe, who served as a Legislator in the 90's, came back and won by a small margin in 2006. Monroe, who will be 68 , has a pretty fair chance of retiring. If that is the case, potential candidates include Democrats Rep. Mike Schaufler, Jefferson Smith, who is unopposed for a House seat, and Jeff Merkely if he fails in his U.S. Senate race. Potential Republicans include 2006 challenger T.J. Reilly, who came close in the Democratic year 2006, and Dave Mowry, who nearly defeated Schafler in 2004. This district has a definite Democratic lean, but is probably not out of reach for Republicans.

District 26:

Moderate Democrat Rick Metsger, who just lost a primary race for Secretary of State this year, is the incumbent in this district which is comprised by Hood River county, a large part of Clackamas county, and part of Multnomah county. This is definitely a tossup district. Republicans would probably have at least an even chance here if Metsger decides not to run again. The likeliest candidate for Republicans would be Rep. Linda Flores if she can survive this election, the idea of running for a Senate seat which only comes up every four years may sound appealing to Flores, who seems to be targeted each time she is up for re-election. Other Republican candidates could include Rep. Patti Smith, 2006 candidate Carol York, and very unlikely Matt Lindland, who is running to replace Smith. For Democrats, both of their House candidates, Brent Barton and Suzanne VanOrmann, who are running against Flores and Lindland, are potential candidates.