An Early Look at Oregon Senate Races

Since it doesn't look like any if this year's State Senate races are going to be close, from my perspective it is a foregone conclusion that Republicans will gain one seat (27), I have already been looking towards the 2010 State Senate races. 15 seats, plus any vacancies that need to be filled, will be up. When incumbents retire, members of the House often run to replace them (22 of 30 Senators are former House members). Here is a district-by-district look at the 2010 Senate races (due to the length of this post, I will divide it in two, so be sure to check back tomorrow for part two):

District 3:

Allan Bates currently represents this swing district which consists mostly of the cities of Ashland and Medford. Bates will probably run for re-election, though he has shown interest in higher office. If Bates retires, potential Republican candidates could include Rep. Sal Esquivel or former Rep. Rob Partridge. Democrats would probably nominate Rep. Peter Buckley.

District 4:

This fairly Liberal district is composed by parts of Douglas and Lane counties, including a large part of Eugene. Democrat incumbent Floyd Prozanski will likely run for re-election without major opposition. Even if he does retire, it will be difficult for Republicans to win this district. Democrat Rep. Paul Holvey would be the most likely option to succeed Prozanski.

District 6:

Democrat Bill Morrisette is set to retire at the end of his current term. This district is made up by the city of Springfield, as well as part of surrounding Lane county and part of Linn county. Democrat Reps Phil Barnhart or Terry Beyer, though probably not both, will almost certainly run. The winner of the Dem primary will probably be the favorite in this Democratic leaning district, unless popular Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken decides to run, which is a possibility.

District 7:

Vicki Walker, a Democrat who was unsuccessful in a Secretary of State bid this year, will be up for re-election in this Eugene based district. Last election, Walker was nearly taken out by former Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey. Though this district has a Democratic lean, it could be close. Potential Republican candidates include Torrey, and former State Reps Debbi and Pat Farr. Democratic candidates, if Walker doesn't run again, could potentially be reps Nancy Nathanson or Chris Edwards.

District 8:

Liberal Republican Senator Frank Morse looks like he will retire at the end of his term, likely setting up a partisan and geographic battle between Reps Sara Gelser, a Democrat from the mostly Corvallis half of the district, and Andy Olson, who represents the mostly Albany portion of the district. This may be the top Senate race of 2010, as this is a tossup district, having just a small Democratic registration advantage, and being represented by a moderate Republican for the last few terms.

District 10:

This district is made up of Monmouth, a large portion of Salem, and the surrounding rural areas. Moderate Republican Jackie Winters represents this district, which leans Republican but barely. Winters seems likely to retire, she will be 73 and will have served multiple terms. The best candidate for Republicans would probably be State Rep. Kevin Cameron. Also State Rep. Vicki Berger is a strong possibility. For the Democrats, 2006 candidate and former Monmouth Mayor Paul Evans is one potential candidate.

District 11:

Senate President Peter Courtney represents this Salem-based district, the district with the fewest number of registered voters. This district seems to be trending more Democratic, Republicans have lost both House seats in the last two elections, and Courtney should be able to win re-election easily if he seeks it, which seems likely. Democrats Betty Komp and Brian Clem are the State Reps in this district. Republican Kevin Mannix, former Legislator, party Chair, and candidate for multiple other offices, is a potential dark horse candidate, though it remains to be seen if he has interest in running for public office anymore after losing several times in a row.

District 13:

This district is solidly Republican. Incumbent Larry George should cruise to re-election. He may face a primary challenge, though that is probably unlikely. If George retires, it probably wouldn't even hurt Republicans chances here.