Update On May 6 Democratic Primary Contests

When Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania on April 22nd, it heightened the importance of the May 6th primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, where there are a total of 187 pledged delegates at stake. Obama currently leads by 156 pledged delegates, and about 50,000 popular votes.

Obama is expected to have the upper hand in the North Carolina primary. In the RealClearPolitics latest polls average Obama leads Clinton by over 10% in North Carolina, where there are 115 delegates at stake. Popular North Carolina Governor Mike Easley just announced his support for Clinton, which may help bring her closer. Former Senator John Edwards, who dropped out of the race in January, and whose home state is North Carolina, has yet to make an endorsement. If Edwards endorses, it could be a big factor.

In Indiana, the polling average shows a Clinton with a small lead, though she leads by 8 and 9% in the last two polls. Clinton is endorsed by Evan Bayh, Indiana's popular Democratic senator, former Governor, and a possible Vice-Presidential pick if Clinton is nominated. There are 72 delegates at stake in Indiana. Clinton will likely need a win in Indiana to keep any hope alive for her Presidential run.

Also on the ballot for Democrats in those states are the contenders for the party's nomination for Governor. In Indiana, Architect Jim Schellinger is facing former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson for the right to challenge unpopular Republican Governor Mitch Daniels. Thompson is leading Schellinger by 12% in the latest SureveyUSA poll. In North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Berverly Perdue is facing State Treasurer Richard Moore for the nomination for the open seat Easley is leaving due to term limits. Perdue is leading Moore 43%-39%.

America's Weirdest Real Laws...

Just for the fun of it, here are some of the best strange, and real laws in the United States (don't tell your lawyer friends).

It is illegal to...

...Pawn your dentures in Las Vegas.

...Tie your pet crocodile to a fire hydrant in Michigan.

...Walk your elephant without a leash in Wisconsin.

...Hunt whales from your automobile in California.

...Serve ice cream on cherry pie in Kansas.

...Draw funny faces on window shades in Garfield County, Montana.

...Serve on the jury if you are dead in Oregon.

...Hunt moths under streetlights in Los Angeles.

...Shave in the middle of Main Street in Tylertown, Mississippi.

...Push a live moose out of a moving airplane in Alaska.

...Open a can of food with a gun in Indiana.

...Drive a goat cart past a church "in ridiculous fashion" in Chaseville, New York.

...Charge a bald man more than twenty-five cents for a haircut in Louisiana.

...Blindfold cows on public highways in Arkansas.

...Sell ice after 6 p.m. in Newark, New Jersey without a prescription.

...Carry a concealed weapon longer than six feet in Seattle.

Those laws make certain members of Congress almost sound like good lawmakers.

Source: The BRI

McCain Shows his Indepedence

In recent remarks, McCain showed not only his independence from political norms but also his incredible potential to unify the nation. That's what America, as torn apart by partisianship as it is, most needs.

Get the full story at Twice Infinity, Shafer's blog.

Write Idea Rankings: Most Vulnerable Dem-Held House Seats

Though it's a difficult task, with almost no polls to be found amid the Presidential race, I am going to try to rank the most vulnerable House seats currently held by Democrats. Though Republicans do not seem to have as many good opportunities to pick up seats, and most pundits predict Democrats will make gains, Republicans certainly have some shots as well.

1. TX-22: District 22 in Texas is likely to be the Republicans best hope for a pickup. The district leans Republican, having voted for Bush 64%-36% in 2004, and sent Tom DeLay to congress for many years. The current Democratic Congressman, Nick Lampson, only won last election in a Democratic year after DeLay resigned and the GOP couldn't put a replacement on the ballot. This year, Pete Olson, a former aide to Senator John Cornyn, defeated Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in the primary runoff, a factor that looks like it will boost GOP chances in this district. Olson has raised $893K but only had $127K on hand at the beginning of April due to spending on the primary. Lampson, who had no primary competition, raised $1.3 million, and still has $1 million to spend.

2. OR-5: Oregon’s fifth district was left open due to the surprise retirement of Democratic Congresswoman Darlene Hooley. The district is a swing district, having gone 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Mike Erickson, the Republican nominee in 2006, the only candidate who was in the race before Holley announced her retirement in February, has raised $634k so far, and has $332k left. His opponent in the primary, former legislator and state party chair Kevin Mannix raised $109k in his first month in less than a month. Democrats Kurt Schrader, a state Senator, and Steve Marks, chief of staff to former Governor John Kitzahber, have raised $56k and $26k respectively; both Democrats have also been in the race for about a month. This race looks like a tossup at this point, but it remains to see what effect divisive primaries could have.

3. AL-5: Another surprise retirement, this time by Democratic Congressman Bud Cramer, left this district looking like a great pickup opportunity for Republicans. Attorney Wayne Parker is running, and raised 177k in the first few days of his campaign. Running for the Democrats is state Senator Parker Griffith, who has raised $115k. For Democrats, it may be hard to win this district with no incumbent, when Bush carried it by 20% in 2004.

4. KS-2: Democrat Nancy Boyda pulled off one of the biggest upsets last election when she beat incumbent Republican Jim Ryun 51%-47% in a district that was carried by Bush 59%-39%. Ryun is running again, but is being challenged in the primary by state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, a more liberal Republican. Ryun has raised $1.2 million and has $459k left. Jenkins has raised $622k and has $459k cash on hand. Boyda, the incumbent, has raised $922k, and has $811k left. This district could be hard for Democrats to defend after the primary is over and Republicans can concentrate on Boyda.

5. CA-11: Democrat Jerry McNerney defeated Republican Congressman Richard Pombo, partly because he had ethical problems, and because the race was influenced by outside groups concerned for the environment. This year Republicans seem to have a better candidate in Assemblyman Dean Andal, who has raised $638k and has $531k cash-on-hand. McNerney has raised $1.6 million this year, and has $1.1 left.

Runners up: AZ-8, FL-16, GA-8, PA-4, PA-10

Rep. Paul Broun (GA) To Try to Stop the Sale of Pornography on Military Installations

Congressman Paul Broun, a Conservative Republican from Georgia has introduced a bill (H.R. 5821) that bans the sale of pornography on military installations. He says:

As the United States continues to lead the fight in the War on Terror, the welfare and morale of our troops is always of the utmost concern. Consequently, I have sponsored the Military Honor and Decency Act which would prevent the sale of sexually explicit material on military installations.

As a former Marine and Naval Medical officer, I am deeply concerned for the welfare of our troops and their mission. I understand the difficulties that are often associated with enduring high-stress situations while separated from loved ones; yet fostering the sale of pornography on military installations is a far cry from an acceptable solution. While filling the coffers of moguls like Hugh Hefner and Larry Flynt, the sale of pornography has only served to escalate the number of violent, sexual crimes in the U.S., feed a base addiction, and further erode the family as the primary building block of society.

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1997 stated, in part, that “The Secretary of Defense may not permit the sale or rental of sexually explicit material on property under the jurisdiction of the Department of Defense.” However, broad definitions in the statute have created a loophole which allows publications such as Playboy, Penthouse, and similar material that many (including myself) label as pornography to be distributed to and sold at military exchange stores. That is why I am sponsoring the Military Honor and Decency Act. My bill will close the statutory loophole and right a bureaucratic—and moral—wrong.

Paul C. Broun, M.D. (GA-10)

To see the bill text, go here

To contact your member of Congress go here.

Learning to laugh at tragedy...gas prices in America

Not my copyright. See each publisher for copyright information.

Jim Weidner Candidate for Oregon State Representative Introduces New Website

Jim Weidner candidate for Oregon’s State House District 24…is moving his campaign right along. I had the opportunity to meet and talk with Jim several times this year. He is the Principled and Conservative candidate for Rep. Donna Nelson’s old seat. I fully support Jim….If you are a Conservative, you should, too.

Jim Weidner is dedicated to limiting government growth and waste.
In 2007, the Democrat controlled state government increased spending by 20% and saddled Oregonians with $923 million in new state debt....

Governmentium - Described as an Element on Periodic Table

The element, Governmentium (Gv),

Research has led to the discovery of the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312.

These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert; however, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A minute amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second to take from four days to four years to complete.

Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2- 6 years; It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass.

When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium, an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.

--Anonymous

"Welfare for All and Taxes for None!"

A new party shall emerge in American politics: the Socialist Libertarians. Their motto: "Welfare for all and Taxes for None!" Their policies: paper money, price-fixing, and good intentions. Their color: Orange. Republicans beware!

Get the whole scoop at the article on Twice Infinity.

United States Should Boycott Olympics: Send Message to China and World

According the American Heritage dictionary, fascism is a system of government marked by 1) centralization of authority under a dictator, 2) stringent socioeconomic controls, 3) suppression of the opposition through terror and censorship, and 4) a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism. The Chinese autocratic regime gleefully fulfills this definition. China’s forced occupation of Tibet has led to the deaths of an estimated 1.2 million Tibetans. Additionally China’s direct support of the Sudan genocide blatantly continues. Within China's borders, compulsory family “planning” and forced abortions are universal. China has hundreds of forced-labor prisons, which hold political and religious dissidents. There are firsthand reports of physical and psychological torture, confessions forced by torture, live organ harvesting, and other inconceivable atrocities within these prisons.

America should send a message to China: we do not support you; we will not attend the Olympics.

Death by Vitamin!

New research suggests that vitamin supplements may actually shorten one's life! What does this mean for you? The answer: worry less.

Get the full story on Twice Infinity.

The North American Union? One Hundred and Fifty Years Ago, Henry Clay Told Us it Would Not Work

Henry Clay: speech regarding the Mexican War (1846)

"…we believe the two nations [Mexico & America] could not be happily governed by one common authority, owing to their great difference of race, law, language and religion, and the vast extent of their respective territories, and large amount of their respective populations…."

"That we deprecate, therefore, such a union, as wholly incompatible with the genius of our Government, and with the character of free and liberal institutions; and we anxiously hope that each nation may be left in the undisturbed possession of its own laws, language, cherished religion and territory, to pursue its own happiness, according to what it may deem best for itself."

Henry Clay, The Papers of Henry Clay, vol. 10: Candidate, Compromiser, Elder Statesman, Melba Porter Hay, ed. (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1991), pp. 361-376.

Merely Symbolic Protest

[Note: This post was originally published on Shafer's new blog twiceinfinity.wordpress.com, which feature news commentary, essays, etc.]

I found this cartoon on Digg.com. (this is the Digg page about it; this is its original URL).

It makes a good point - all the Olympics protests are symbolic. The American consumer has the potential to make a much stronger statement against China's numerous human rights abuses.

This isn't one of those protectionist "BUY AMERICAN PRODUCTS ONLY!!!!!" rants. Free trade is a wonderful thing, even free trade with China. And the current situation shows us another way in which it's a wonderful thing - it allows us to make powerful statements.

But only if we want to.

When we have the opportunity to buy Chinese products (as we do), refusing to buy such products would send a powerful message - a message much more powerful than that conveyed by picketing torch-runners.

It's a message we can easily send -

- but only if we want to.

**

http://twiceinfinity.wordpress.com/2008/04/13/merely-symbolic-protest/

Grim News For Obama

Obama's poll numbers look like they're starting to suffer from his "bitter-gate" gaffe on Friday, in which he had this to say about people in small towns that have lost jobs:

"They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

Here are the latest state democratic primary polls from Survey USA:

Pennsylvania

Clinton 54%

Obama 40%

Indiana

Clinton 55%

Obama 39%

Kentucky

Clinton 62%

Obama 26%

It appeared that Obama was on track to win the nomination, but his gaffe may have cost him the win, or at least the easy win. If Clinton does as well in the voting results as she is doing in those polls, Obama may be in trouble.

War for oil? No. Oil for war? Yes.

According to a MSNBC article from last year, the War in Iraq is costing the United States around $255 million per day. Iraq's sustainable oil production capacity is almost 3 million barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iraqi ground holds more than 112 billion barrels of oil—the world's second largest proven reserves— and unexplored regions could yield an additional 100 billion barrels. One million barrels of oil a day, is either 1/20 of the United States daily gas consumption or 100 Million dollars (calculated at $100 a barrel). America has liberated Iraqi’s from the torture chambers of Saddam, but in doing so we have gone billions of dollars further in debt.

The month that President Bush was sworn into office, gas was averaging $1.70 a gallon. Now, after five years of war in Iraq, gas is $3.60 a gallon. That is two dollars more to pay—because of the war on terror. Iraqi oil should be used to pay America back. It is a little known fact, but Kuwait (think Desert Storm) paid the United State $36 billion for its liberation. Iraq should do the same.

Write Idea Rankings: States Most Likely To Switch In The Presidential Election

Which states are the most likely to go from Bush winning in 2004 to Obama winning in 2008, or Kerry winning in 2004 and McCain in 2008? This is in the scenario of an Obama/McCain race, based on 2004 results, polls, and trends:

5. Wisconsin was won by Kerry by a margin of 0.38% and McCain has held the lead in the last few polls. If McCain picks the right Vice-President, it could make him even more likely to win in this swing state.

4. New Hampshire is the primary state that saved McCain's bid, and ultimately made him the nominee. McCain is very popular here and his maverick style helps in this Independent minded state. New Hampshire was only won by 1% by Kerry in 2004, and McCain holds the polling lead.

3. Nevada was carried by Bush by 2.5%. Obama nearly won the state caucuses in January, when he was endorsed by the powerful culinary union, and he holds the lead in the latest poll.

2. Iowa had a huge turnout for Obama in the first in the nation vote, giving him first place. Iowa was carried by less than 1% in 2004 by Bush. Obama has held a small lead in polls. If Obama's Iowas turnout is as good this fall as it was last winter, Iowa is looking good for Obama.

1. New Mexico was carried by less than six-thousand votes in 2004 by Bush, a margin of less than 1%. Obama has led by a fairly comfortable margin in recent polls. Governor Bill Richardson is a possible Vice-Presidential choice, if he was picked it would almost certainly put New Mexico in the Democratic column.

If Clinton can stay alive long enough, I will be trying to rank states for a Clinton/McCain scenario soon.

Message to park bullies: you bothered the wrong guy...

When is a Lie Not a Lie?

From Not Your Daddy

The left never seems to tire of reminding us that “Bush lied about Iraq having WMDs!” But was it really a lie? If so, how so? It is an established fact that Iraq had developed and used WMDs previously, against its own citizens, though the left seems to have conveniently forgotten this. In his 1998 State of the Union address, President William J. Clinton said:

Saddam Hussein has spent the better part of this decade, and much of his nation’s wealth, not on providing for the Iraqi people, but on developing nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, and the missiles to deliver them.

Superdelegates: The Ones Who Will Likely Decide The Democratic Nomination

Ever hear about a "Superdelegate," and wonder who exactly they are, what they do, etc? Here are some answers:

Who are "Superdelegates"?

Superdelegates are party officials who go to the Democratic convention as unpledged delegates to help pick the nominee, they consist of Democratic members of the Senate (John Kerry, Harry Reid, etc.), House of Representatives (Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, etc.), Democratic Governors (Ted Kulongoski, Brian Schwietzer, etc.) former Democratic Presidents (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) and Vice-Presidents (Al Gore, Walter Mondale), former House and Senate Democratic leaders (Dick Gephardt, George Mitchell, etc.), current and former party Chairs (Howard Dean, Terry McAuliffe, etc.), and various Democrat party officials (state party chairs, DNC members, etc.).

Why have Superdelegates?

After the chaotic 1968 Democratic convention, the Democratic party decided to take influence away from party leaders and give it to voters. After deciding three Democratic nominees without party leaders, some Democrats thought that power shouldn't be taken from party leaders, and that it had given them weak tickets in George McGovern and Jimmy Carter, in 1982 the party decided to adopt the current system of "pledged" delegates who are selected by the voters and make up the majority of the delegates, and "unpledged" (Super)delegates who make up the rest.

How many Superdelegates are there?

At the 2008 Convention there will be around 800 Superdelegates out of approximately 4,100 total delegates (exact totals depend on whether Florida and Michigan's delegates are seated). Here is a list of all current Superdelegates.

How important are Superdelegates?

Superdelegates will likely decide the Democratic nomination this year because it is unlikely that either Clinton or Obama will get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. Currently Clinton has 251 Superdelegates supporting her to 224 for Obama, Superdelegates can change their vote at any time, however (thus the name "unpledged delegates"). Some have speculated that some important Superdelegates could end the nomination fight if they decided to support a candidate, liberal blogger Kari Chisholm has compiled a useful list of Superdelegates who have not yet indicated support for a candidate, and how important their support might be here.

Condoleezza Rice For VP?

Could Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice?

I previously wrote about McCain's Vice-Presidential picks, I ended up passing over Rice because I thought she probably wouldn't be interested, however, speculation was raised again when Secretary Rice spoke to a group of economic conservatives, including Americans for Tax Reform's Grover Norquist (He later endorsed Rice for Vice President), and when on Sunday, former coalition forces in Iraq spokesperson and GOP operative Dan Senor said she was "actively, actually in recent weeks campaigning" for the Vice Presidential nomination.

Senator McCain said this about Secretary Rice:

“I think she’s a great American, I think there’s very little that I can say that isn’t anything but the utmost praise for a great American citizen, who served as a role model to so many millions of people in this country and around the world.”

However, Rice's spokesman Sean McCormack said Monday that Secretary Rice wants to return to her job at Stanford University and did not want the nomination. Also, in a recent interview, Rice said she is not interested in the Vice-Presidency, and she thought they should bring in “new blood.”

I think Rice could make a great VP nominee, she has a lot of experience, she could probably please the very conservative wing of the party and still appeal to moderates and, of course, she could bring diversity to the ticket. As much as I think she would be a good Vice-President, I agree with her that it would probably be better to bring in new people. And I think McCain probably wouldn't want someone that close to the administration for his Vice-President.

New 2008 Oregon and Washington Political Polls, Senatorial, Presidential, Gubernatorial…

Survey USA released new polls Monday for the Oregon primary and the State of Washington general elections.

Oregon Presidential nomination:

Obama 52%

Clinton 42%

Looks like Clinton is going to make it fairly close, probably not what Obama hoped for.

Washington General Presidential election:

Clinton 45%

McCain 46%

Obama 51%
McCain 44%

McCain still leads Clinton and is in striking distance of Obama. It would be a huge upset if McCain ends up winning in the Northwest.

Washington Gubernatorial:

Gregoire (D) 48%

Rossi (R) 47%

Bad news for Gregoire, having that small of a lead as an incumbent at this point is not a good sign.

Oh, there is also an Oregon Senate Democratic Primary poll out:

Merkley 11%

Novick 23%
Neville 12%

Not good news for the DSCC, their favorite, Oregon House Speaker Jeff "Must Tax" Merkley is in THIRD PLACE!!! He has less than half as much as competitor Steve Novick. National Democrats reputation may be on the line, it probably wouldn't be good for them to see their favorite get crushed in the primary. I do expect the gap to close, but 11% is not a great sign.

Also see:

Latest Oregon Presidential Poll Numbers

John McCain On The Issues... And Why Conservatives (and everybody else) Should Support Him.

John McCain Vice-Presidential Picks

McCain vs Obama

Al Gore for President... 2008?

For complete poll results, visit Survey USA election polls.

John Murtha, Corrupt As They Come

Murtha: He is the very meaning of "pork." There is only one problem with this report: they forget to mention that Murtha is a Democrat....

A Murtha fundraiser

Murtha on supporting the troops



What a fellow Congresswomen thinks about it