Though it's a difficult task, with almost no polls to be found amid the Presidential race, I am going to try to rank the most vulnerable House seats currently held by Democrats. Though Republicans do not seem to have as many good opportunities to pick up seats, and most pundits predict Democrats will make gains, Republicans certainly have some shots as well.
1. TX-22: District 22 in Texas is likely to be the Republicans best hope for a pickup. The district leans Republican, having voted for Bush 64%-36% in 2004, and sent Tom DeLay to congress for many years. The current Democratic Congressman, Nick Lampson, only won last election in a Democratic year after DeLay resigned and the GOP couldn't put a replacement on the ballot. This year, Pete Olson, a former aide to Senator John Cornyn, defeated Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in the primary runoff, a factor that looks like it will boost GOP chances in this district. Olson has raised $893K but only had $127K on hand at the beginning of April due to spending on the primary. Lampson, who had no primary competition, raised $1.3 million, and still has $1 million to spend.
2. OR-5: Oregon’s fifth district was left open due to the surprise retirement of Democratic Congresswoman Darlene Hooley. The district is a swing district, having gone 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Mike Erickson, the Republican nominee in 2006, the only candidate who was in the race before Holley announced her retirement in February, has raised $634k so far, and has $332k left. His opponent in the primary, former legislator and state party chair Kevin Mannix raised $109k in his first month in less than a month. Democrats Kurt Schrader, a state Senator, and Steve Marks, chief of staff to former Governor John Kitzahber, have raised $56k and $26k respectively; both Democrats have also been in the race for about a month. This race looks like a tossup at this point, but it remains to see what effect divisive primaries could have.
3. AL-5: Another surprise retirement, this time by Democratic Congressman Bud Cramer, left this district looking like a great pickup opportunity for Republicans. Attorney Wayne Parker is running, and raised 177k in the first few days of his campaign. Running for the Democrats is state Senator Parker Griffith, who has raised $115k. For Democrats, it may be hard to win this district with no incumbent, when Bush carried it by 20% in 2004.
4. KS-2: Democrat Nancy Boyda pulled off one of the biggest upsets last election when she beat incumbent Republican Jim Ryun 51%-47% in a district that was carried by Bush 59%-39%. Ryun is running again, but is being challenged in the primary by state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, a more liberal Republican. Ryun has raised $1.2 million and has $459k left. Jenkins has raised $622k and has $459k cash on hand. Boyda, the incumbent, has raised $922k, and has $811k left. This district could be hard for Democrats to defend after the primary is over and Republicans can concentrate on Boyda.
5. CA-11: Democrat Jerry McNerney defeated Republican Congressman Richard Pombo, partly because he had ethical problems, and because the race was influenced by outside groups concerned for the environment. This year Republicans seem to have a better candidate in Assemblyman Dean Andal, who has raised $638k and has $531k cash-on-hand. McNerney has raised $1.6 million this year, and has $1.1 left.
Runners up: AZ-8, FL-16, GA-8, PA-4, PA-10