Thoreau: Routine War Degenerates the Army

But when war too, like commerce and husbandry, gets to be a routine, and men go about it as indented apprentices, the hero degenerates into a marine, and the standing army into a standing jest.


--Thoreau, People, Principles, And Politics, Journal Entry, December 1839

Thoreau then goes on to state in Civil Disobedience:

After all, the practical reason why, when the power is once in the hands of the people, a majority are permitted, and for a long period continue, to rule is not because they are most likely to be in the right, nor because this seems fairest to the minority, but because they are physically the strongest. But a government in which the majority rule in all cases can not be based on justice, even as far as men understand it. Can there not be a government in which the majorities do not virtually decide right and wrong, but conscience?--in which majorities decide only those questions to which the rule of expediency is applicable? Must the citizen ever for a moment, or in the least degree, resign his conscience to the legislator? Why has every man a conscience then? I think that we should be men first, and subjects afterward. It is not desirable to cultivate a respect for the law, so much as for the right. The only obligation which I have a right to assume is to do at any time what I think right. It is truly enough said that a corporation has no conscience; but a corporation of conscientious men is a corporation with a conscience. Law never made men a whit more just; and, by means of their respect for it, even the well-disposed are daily made the agents of injustice. A common and natural result of an undue respect for the law is, that you may see a file of soldiers, colonel, captain, corporal, privates, powder-monkeys, and all, marching in admirable order over hill and dale to the wars, against their wills, ay, against their common sense and consciences, which makes it very steep marching indeed, and produces a palpitation of the heart. They have no doubt that it is a damnable business in which they are concerned; they are all peaceably inclined. Now, what are they? Men at all? or small movable forts and magazines, at the service of some unscrupulous man in power? Visit the Navy Yard, and behold a marine, such a man as an American government can make, or such as it can make a man with its black arts--a mere shadow and reminiscence of humanity, a man laid out alive and standing, and already, as one may say, buried under arms with funeral accompaniment, though it may be,

               "Not a drum was heard, not a funeral note,

                   As his corse to the rampart we hurried;

              Not a soldier discharged his farewell shot

                   O'er the grave where our hero was buried."

The mass of men serve the state thus, not as men mainly, but as machines, with their bodies. They are the standing army, and the militia, jailers, constables, posse comitatus, etc. In most cases there is no free exercise whatever of the judgement or of the moral sense; but they put themselves on a level with wood and earth and stones; and wooden men can perhaps be manufactured that will serve the purpose as well. Such command no more respect than men of straw or a lump of dirt. They have the same sort of worth only as horses and dogs. Yet such as these even are commonly esteemed good citizens. Others--as most legislators, politicians, lawyers, ministers, and office-holders--serve the state chiefly with their heads; and, as they rarely make any moral distinctions, they are as likely to serve the devil, without intending it, as God. A very few--as heroes, patriots, martyrs, reformers in the great sense, and men--serve the state with their consciences also, and so necessarily resist it for the most part; and they are commonly treated as enemies by it. A wise man will only be useful as a man, and will not submit to be "clay," and "stop a hole to keep the wind away," but leave that office to his dust at least:

               "I am too high born to be propertied,

               To be a second at control,

               Or useful serving-man and instrument

               To any sovereign state throughout the world."

Victims Ignored and Justice Denied, Because of Supreme Court’s ‘Evolving Standards’

By Landon Webber,

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Convicted child rapist Patrick Kennedy has now successfully avoided his death sentence approved by the jury in his trial in 2003 because the Supreme Court has again found that yet another class of convicted criminals- this time, child rapists- are not eligible for the death penalty. In a controversial 5-4 decision, Justice Anthony Kennedy concluded with the majority that state laws allowing for the death penalty in extreme rape cases, including those involving child rape, simply don’t cut it when it comes to constitutional standards. Louisiana, where Kennedy committed and was convicted of raping an eight year old, and five other states have the death penalty option for criminals convicted of rape. The case comes as one in a long line of Supreme Court opinions on the Eighth Amendment that have substantially limited death penalty options in criminal cases. “We conclude,” Kennedy wrote, “that, in determining whether the death penalty is excessive, there is a distinction between intentional first-degree murder on the one hand and nonhomicide crimes against individual persons, even including child rape, on the other.” There is indeed a distinction between a homicide and child rape, and yet one that the Court utterly failed to recognize.

Kate Bartholomew, an assistant district attorney in Orleans Parish, Louisiana, who deals with cases much like the one before the Supreme Court, discussed Louisiana’s reasons for having the option available in cases of child rape. “A lot of people think there should not be a death penalty because the child survives…In my opinion, the rape of a child is more heinous and more hideous than a homicide.” In cases of child rape, the assault, “takes away their innocence. It takes away their childhood. It mutilates their spirit. It kills their soul.” While the Court seems preoccupied in digging up reasons why states can’t simply give juries the option of using the death penalty, it has ignored the helpless victims, like the one in this case, who suffer for years as a result of an irreprehensible crime against their person.

Justice Kennedy was forced to concede that child rape causes “more prolonged physical and mental suffering” than most homicides, but yet overruled the jury’s decision to sentence Kennedy to death for his extremely violent crime, because, “we conclude there is a national consensus against capital punishment for the crime of child rape.” The Court seems deeply intent on protecting the ever-growing rights of the violator, while denying the determined justice to the violated. As Justice Alito, disagreeing with the majority, wrote, the majority of the court has made a blanket judgment against capital punishment, “no matter how young the child,…no matter how much physical and psychological trauma is inflicted and no matter how heinous the perpetrator’s criminal record may be.”

The Court used a series of legal tests and mechanisms to figure out if the Louisiana law violated the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution which prohibits all “cruel and unusual punishment.” In Justice Kennedy’s decision, he repeatedly used the language from the 1958 case, Trop v. Dulles, which prohibited the removal of citizenship for deserters during wartime, which stated that the ‘cruel and unusual’ clause “draw[s] its meaning from the evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society.” Ambiguous language such as this places the Court in a perfect position to narrow or widen the scope of this part of the Constitution to basically any degree. According to past interpretations of this legal jargon, the Court discovers what the nation’s ‘evolving standards’ with regards to the death penalty are, by looking through their crystal ball of what they term ‘objective indicia’ of the ‘national consensus’ with regards to the death penalty. Indeed the Court’s journey through the history of the Eighth Amendment is riddled with past cases which continuously echoed, but variously applied the ‘evolving standards of decency.’ Most recently, using the infamous language from Trop, the Court decided the landmark case Roper v. Simmons which prohibited the death penalty for juvenile offenders. In this case, however, the Court drew national attention when they decided what this case’s ‘evolving standards of decency’ were based on international standards from countries randomly selected by then-Justice O’Connor, who wrote the majority opinion. In Wednesday’s decision, Kennedy v. Louisiana, Justice Kennedy at least decided to stick with determining national consensus based on the laws of U.S. states, however, the attorneys representing the State of Louisiana pointed out just how flawed this standard was with their arguments.

In oral arguments, Louisiana contended that even though a majority of states across the nation leave out the death penalty except in cases where the victim is murdered, more and more states are considering expanding where the death penalty applies- including, applying it in cases of child rape. The Court rejected basing their judgment of national consensus on proposed state legislation, as well they should have. But the argument goes to show just how unstable and flimsy the standard is. Using the ‘evolving standards’ test means that now, any time a capital punishment case comes before federal judges, the courts must again measure the ever-changing thermometer of national opinion about the death penalty. If in ten years, 25 states have added child rape as a capital crime, what should the courts do then? Well, judging by how Eighth Amendment law has been conveniently shifty, they will probably invent a new standard. The problem with a standard that makes a test out of whether or not something conforms to ‘evolving standards’ means that that part of the law is, well, evolving, ever-changing and never consistent. The Court’s decision hammers yet another nail in the coffin from ever having a clear interpretation of the Eighth Amendment. It is opinions that conform to subjective standards like these that mock the very nature of the Constitution and the grave and serious suffering that young victims like the one Patrick Kennedy raped in 2003 undergo each and every day.

County Commisioner Andy Duyck to Run in HD 30

Rep. David Edwards may be in trouble State House district 30.

House district 30 is formed mostly by Hillsboro, and also some rural areas. It is a moderate district in terms of voter registration, but Edwards won his first term in the Democrat year of 2006.

According to sources, Edwards' current opponent will withdraw, leaving GOP Precinct Committee Persons to select a challenger. Commissioner Duyck has decided to step in, and according to sources, will be the nominee against Edwards.

Duyck will be a formidable opponent for Edwards. He has high name recognition as a County Commsioner and deep roots in the county. Republicans have tried to recruit him in the past. Duyck felt he couldn't because of his responsibilities with his shop, Duyck Machine. He now feels that he has enough good people there to take care of it.

Andy Duyck currently represents Commsion district 4, including Banks, Cornelius, Forest Grove, Gaston, Hillsboro, and North Plains. He also serves on the board of clean water services. His cousin, Jeff Duyck, is already running a strong campaign in neighboring HD 29.

Current opponent Andy Meyer was not expected to be a strong challenger to Edwards. Duyck's entry will give the House Republicans more hope in their uphill climb to win the majority back. Edwards will have a head start on Duyck, as he has already been running for months. Republicans will make the official pick on June 30th.

Duyck will not have to give up his seat on the Commission until he wins. If so, a new Commissioner will be elected next year.

Outlook for Oregon 2010 Races

Since the Oregonian decided it was not to early to speculate about the 2010 Governor's race, I decided to offer a quick glance at the Congressional races that year (all purely speculation):

Senate:

Popular incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden is expected to run for re-election.

If Wyden does indeed run again, he will win the primary easily, as he is the most popular Democrat in the state. He will likely face primary opposition from Pavel Goberman.

Republicans may field a candidate, though probably not a credible one. Bill Ames, Bruce Broussard, and Al King are possibilities.

In any case, Democrats are expected to win this seat again.

Congress District One:

David Wu, the incumbent, doesn't seem to be particularly popular or effective. He is, however, a five-term incumbent in a Democrat leaning district, something that may be hard to overcome. If Wu runs for re-election, as is likely since he will only be, the only hope for Republicans would likely be for them to recruit moderate State Senator Bruce Starr of Hillsboro, who's strength on many issues including transportation, as well as his moderate voting record and his popularity on both sides of the aisle could make him a tough candidate. If Wu retires, expect a crowded primary on the Democratic side. Starr would still probably be the best option for Republicans.

District Two:

Speculation has it that Congressman Greg Walden may run for Governor in 2010, leaving this seat open. The most likely heir to Walden's seat would be another Republican State Senator Jason Atkinson. Other options for Republicans could include State Rep. Ron Maurer or Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli. Though this is a tough district for Democrats, State Senators Ben Westlund, who is currently running for Treasurer, or Alan Bates could be strong challengers.

District Three:

There has also been speculation about third district Congressman Earl Blumenaur will run for Governor or be named Transportation Secretary if Obama is elected President. If Blumenaur does not run, expect a very crowded Democratic primary. Republicans have no chance here, though a third party candidate like State Senator Avel Gordly, who switches between being a Democrat and an Independent, could be a possibility.

District Four:

Incumbent Democrat Pete Defazio is the object of yet more speculation for Governor. In this marginally Democratic district, possibilities for Democrats include both Eugene State Senators, Floyd Prozanski and Vicki Walker, as well as County Comissioner Pete Sorenson. Republicans top recruit might be Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken. State House minority Leader Bruce Hanna is another possibility.

District Five:

Democrat Kurt Schrader and Republican Mike Erickson are in a contested race for this district now, making it difficult to speculate on the 2010 race. I believe that Schrader is the favorite to win right now, if that is the case, possible Republican candidates include three State Reps who passed up this year: Vicki Berger, Brian Boquist, and Scott Bruun, as well as former State Rep. Jeff Kropf, the State Director for Americans for Prosperity.

I will also be writing my perspective on the Governor's and other statewide elections soon.

Obama VP Results

The second round of CQ Politics' Obama Vice-Presidential challenge is now over. Here are the results:

Clinton 62%

Vilsack 37%

Rendell 62%

Stickland 37%

Edwards 53%

Schwietzer 46%

Bayh 43%

Clark 56%

Sebelius 54%

Kaine 45%

Cleland 29%

Biden 70%

Richardson 54%

Webb 45%

Nunn 55%

Gore 44%

The third round matchups are:

Clinton vs. Rendell

Edwards vs. Clark

Biden vs. Sebelius

Nunn vs. Richardson

It's still not too late to let your opinion be heard. You can cast your votes for the three final rounds.

Sam Brownback for VP?

With all the Vice-Presidential speculation in the past few weeks, I have been wondering why Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) has not received more mention as John McCain's pick. For example, Brownback was invited to meet with McCain in Arizona along with Mitt Romney and Governors Charlie Crist of Florida and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. Crist, Jindal, and Romney have all drawn frequent VP speculation: everything I have read about those meetings Brownback has hardly got any mention, while the other three have dominated the conversation.

Here are a few reasons why Brownback is a legitimate contender:

Age: With McCain turning 72 before the election, he probably needs a fairly young VP candidate. Brownback will be 52 at the time of the election. Jindal's very young age of 36 has sometimes fueled the speculation as a possible VP. McCain may not want someone quite that young though (it sure would make McCain look old...). Brownback, while still pretty young, is at least more than half McCain's age.

Conservative credentials: Brownback is very popular among social Conservatives. He has regularly sponsored and voted for pro-family bills. He has also worked hard on issues like the genocide in Darfur, trying to stop the violence. Brownback tends to be popular among fiscal conservatives as well, getting a rating of 98% from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth in 2006.

Helped McCain get nominated: Crist's endorsement of McCain right before the Florida primary, an endorsement that likely pushed him over the top in that state, is probably the main reason there is so much Crist VP speculation. Brownback's endorsement of McCain after dropping his own bid may have helped him just as much. At the time of Brownback's endorsement, McCain was still far down in the polls (I believe that Brownback's endorsement may have come just before McCain's surge). Brownback's endorsement, if nothing else, at least reassured some initially reluctant social Conservatives about McCain (I know at least one social conservative who ended up supporting McCain in large part because of Brownback's endorsement).

Iraq: Brownback's more moderate positions on Iraq could help with anti-war voters who would likely vote for McCain otherwise.

Temperament: While McCain is known for his explosive temper, Brownback is very laid back and seems to be easy to get along with.

Brownback does have his weaknesses: he doesn't have an overwhelming amount of charisma and he didn't do that well in debates, to name a few. But I think he deserves at least a little more mention.

Write Idea Rankings: Republican States Obama Likely to Win

Now that the Democratic Presidential race is over (thank goodness!), we know it will be McCain and Obama in the general. Here are five states that President Bush carried in the 2004 election that Obama has a good chance to carry this November. 1 is the most likely Obama swing:

5. Nevada: Bush won here in 2004 by a narrow 2% margin. The Republican Governor, Jim Gibbons, has had a few controversies and is pretty unpopular, never helpful for the party. Though Obama didn't quite win the Nevada caucuses in January, he seems to remain popular here.

Latest poll: McCain 46%, Obama 40%

4. Ohio: The ultimate swing state looks like it will once again play a big role in the Presidential election. Bush got by with a 2% victory here in 2004. The Buckeye state is one of the states that have trended the most Democratic in the last few years: Republicans in this state lost the Governorship, a Senate seat, and a Congressional seat in 2006. Obama as the Democratic nominee is one factor that should help McCain. Clinton tends to be more popular with the demographics of Ohio and won easily in the primary there in March.
Latest poll: McCain 44%, Obama 40%

3. Colorado: Though Bush won here by 5% in 2004, Colorado has been trending Democratic: Democrats took a Senate seat in 2004, the Governorship and one Congressional seat in 2006, and they are likely to win the other Senate seat and perhaps another seat in Congress this year. Obama easily won the caucuses here on Super Tuesday.

Latest poll: Obama 48%, McCain 42%

2. New Mexico: If popular New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee, the Democrats may be unstoppable here. As it is, it may be tough for McCain to pull off a win here: Bush only won here by 1% and Richardson, as a popular Democratic Governor with a good political machine will be helpful for Obama here even if he is not the VP pick. Democrat Tom Udall is also favored to take a Republican Senate seat here.

Latest poll: Obama 44%, McCain 44%

1. Iowa: Obama's big win in the caucuses here in January was the start of his stunning victory over Clinton. Obama is popular here and spent a lot of time campaigning her for the primary. McCain on the other hand spent very little time here during the primary season, and opposes farm subsidies, which are very popular here. Bush carried the state by 1% in 2004.

Latest poll: Obama 47%, McCain 38%

Presidential Polls With VP's

In the past week or so, SurveyUSA began releasing state-by-state Presidential polls between Senator Obama and Senator McCain, along with several possible Vice-Presidential picks.

These polls are fun (for some people) to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt considering that most potential picks are not yet well known nationally, and the more well known picks tend to poll better.

Vice-Presidential candidates being polled with McCain include former Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, as well as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Connecticut Independent Senator Joe Lieberman. Polling with Obama are Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, former Presidential candidate John Edwards, and Republican Senator Chuck Hagel.

Though dependent on the state, Huckabee and Lieberman tend to get the most support out of McCain's picks, Romney however, helps McCain very much in the swing state of Michigan, his first home state. Edwards gets the most support for Obama.

Huckabee tends to help McCain the most in the South. Rendell and Sebelius both help gain support for the Obama in their home states, though Sebelius on the ticket is not enough to overcome McCain in Kansas. Among McCain's candidates, Huckabee and Romney do the best among Conservatives, while Lieberman does the best among Moderates.

For full polling data, including crosstabs showing their support among party affiliation, ideological leanings, gender, race, etc., visit SurveyUSA's website.

Write Idea Rankings: Senate Looking Grim For GOP

In recent weeks, Senate prospects have brightened for Democrats with several pieces of good news, including several polls in states like Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas that have shown Democratic challengers doing well. Harry Reid and other Senate Democrats chances at getting a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats, which looked very small after they apparently didn't recruit good enough candidates for several contests, are looking up again:

Likely Democrat:

New Jersey (Lautenberg-D)

New Mexico (Open-R)

Virginia (Open-R)

Lean Democrat:

Colorado (Open-R)

Louisiana (Landrieu-D)

New Hampshire (Sununu-R)

Tossup:

Alaska (Stevens-R)

Mississipi (Wicker-R)

Lean Republican:

Minnesota (Coleman-R)

North Carolina (Dole-R)

Oregon (Smith-R)

Likely Republican:

Kansas (Roberts-R)

Kentucky (McConnel-R)

Maine (Collins-R)

Texas (Cornyn-R)

At least according to this list, it looks like Republicans will lose at least four Senate seats, and if they are very unfortunate, as many as thirteen. While I personally expect GOP prospects to brighten, Senate Democrats may start thinking about a veto-proof majority (67) in 2010 if it starts looking any better for them.

The Not-as-Obvious Oregon Primary Winners

Obviously Barack Obama, Jeff Merkley, Mike Erickson etc. Won on Tuesday. Here are some less obvious winners:

The Democratic establishment: Democrat establishment candidates won almost every primary race. Barack Obama, Jeff Merkley, Kurt Schrader, and Kate Brown all won and all of them seemed to be the establishment picks. In the Attorney General's race John Kroger beat Greg Macpherson. Macpherson was probably more the establishment candidate, but that was the exception.

Conservative Republican State Rep. candidates: Matt Linland, Cliff Bentz, and Jim Weidner were among the conservative candidates who won their primaries. Liberal Republicans did not have as much success.

Congressional Democrats: In the open primaries for Congress district five, Kurt Schrader, the Democrats strongest candidate easily won. On the Republican side Mike Erickson won after a nasty primary, and opponent Kevin Mannix is not endorsing him, making it difficult for Republicans to win back this seat.

State House Republicans: John Nelsen, the Republican candidate for State House district 49, got a break on Tuesday when Nick Kahl, probably his weaker challenger, won his primary. Kahl is a young law student. Republicans also got their stronger candidate in district 24 where Jim Weidner won his primary easily.

Democrat voter turnout: Democrat voter turnout was HUGE, around 70%, which is WAY higher than normal primary turnout.

Crime victims: In the race for Washington County Circuit Court Judge in district 7 , Andy Erwin, who was the more pro-victims rights candidate, became the first challenger to knock off an incumbent judge in Washington county in 16 years.

Rick Dancer: Dancer, a former news anchor who easily won his primary for Secretary of State (he didn't have any opposition), will face Kate Brown in the fall. Brown was probably the weaker general election candidate out of or Senator Rick Metsger.

Ten Things To Watch In Tonight's Oregon Primary

Here are ten questions that should be answered after tonight's voting:

Barack Obama will likely win the Oregon primary fairly easily...

...1. How many delegates will he win?

...2. What will the popular vote margin be?

...3.Can he close it out with a big win, or will it even be enough to offset his loss in Kentucky?

4. Will Steve Novick be able to pull an upset win in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary?

5. Will a last minute scandal be enough to seal Mike Erickson's fate in the campaign for the Republican nomination in Oregon's congressional district five Republican primary, and deliver a win for Kevin Mannix?

6. Will Ron Saxton end up accepting if he is nominated for Attorney General? If so, who will he face in the general?

7. Who will win the Democratic Secretary of State primary?

8. How succesful will the numerous write-in campaigns be?

9. In the several contested Republican Legislative primaries, will the more Conservative or more Liberal candidates win, or will it be balanced between the two?

10. Will Kurt Schrader be able to pull off an expected blow-out win in the Democrat primary for Congress district five?

The Oregon Democratic Primary by Congressional District

In tomorrow's Democratic Presidential primary, 34 of Oregon's 52 pledged delegates will be awarded proportionally by Congressional district, with each district having a certain amount of delegates depending on the Democratic vote from that district in previous elections. Here is a look at each district:

District 1 has seven delegates. District one's Congressman David Wu has endorsed Obama, though it may not help much because Wu is not incredibly popular there. Obama should win this district: it has the smallest percentage of blue collar workers, a group that Clinton does well with, of all the Congressional districts in Oregon.

District 2 has five delegates, the smallest of any Oregon district, because of it's Republican lean. Clinton should expect to do well here since it is a rural district, where Clinton tends to do well in.

District 3 has nine delegates due to it's Democratic tilt. This district will likely lean towards Obama who tends to do well in urban districts such as this. Clinton may get a large share of the blue collar vote and Obama will likely easily win the black vote, which is the largest in the state. Obama is endorsed by Congressman Earl Blumenauer.

District 4 also has seven delegates. This district is hard to predict being part a rural district (where Clinton usually does well) and part a university town district (where Obama does well). Congressman Pete Defazio has endorsed Obama.

District 5 has six delegates. District five is a suburban district that is difficult to predict. Clinton is endorsed by Congresswoman Darlene Hooley and it has the largest Hispanic population (another group Clinton does well with) of any Oregon district.

Statewide, Obama leads 45%-41% in the latest poll, though he has been leading by a larger margin in most polls. Governor Ted Kulongoski has endorsed Clinton.

More Oregon Write-ins

Last week I raised the possibility of a write-in campaign for Ron Saxton. If a candidate receives enough write-in votes and accepts the nomination, they can still appear on the November ballot. There are several other write-in efforts for Oregon's May 20th primary. Here are a few of them:

President:

One columnist suggested perhaps writing-in Al Gore in the Democratic primary in an effort to draft him as a solution to the unresolved Democratic primary fight.

Congress:

District 1: Small business owner and military veteran Stephan Brodhead is running a write-in campaign for the Republican nomination. He was disqualified from the ballot because he wasn't a registered Republican for the required 180 days. Brodhead is a more conservative option than the somewhat liberal candidates Joel Haugen and William Chappell.

District 4: In a recent mailer, the Lane county Republican party suggested writing-in popular Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken for the Republican nomination to take on Rep. Pete Defazio, who is so far unopposed.

State Senate:

Oregon Republican party Chairman Vance Day sent a letter to district 25 (Gresham area) Republicans asking them to write-in businessman Dave Kim for the nomination.

State Rep:

Tim Bero, a businessman for 25 years in his district, is running an active write-in campaign for the nomination in district 32 (parts of Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, and Washington counties). Bero will face Democrat Debbie Boone in this oddly drawn out district.

Jim Ellison, a Republican precinct committeeman, is running for the nomination in district 33 (Parts of Multnomah and Washington counties) to take on far-left Legislator Mitch Greenlick.

Keith Forsythe, a local business owner who has been a resident of St. Helens his whole life, is running for district 31 (parts of Clatsop, Columbia, and Multnomah counties) to take on unopposed first full term Democrat Brad Witte.

Former Legislator Pat Farr is the write-in candidate for Republicans in district 14 (Eugene area). Farr would be matched up against freshman Rep. Chris Edwards in the general election.

Dr. Bill Young (district 13, also the Eugene area) is also suggested by the Lane county Republicans:

Dr. Bill is an independent thinker who would vote on bills based on what is best for the district and the state. Dr. Bill would not blindly follow any party's leadership, unlike the current Democratic incumbent.

Don't forget to fill in the bubble...

The Expections Game and the Democratic Primary

Barack Obama was long expected to win the North Carolina primary easily and keep it close in Indiana.

Hillary Clinton however, took the lead in the polls in Indiana and closed the gap in North Carolina in the week or so preceding the primary voting, which caused heightened expectations for Clinton and lower expectations for Obama. This probably hurt the Clinton campaign because Obama ended up winning by double-digits in North Carolina and kept it close in Indiana.

This expectations game caused many pundits, pollsters, and politicians to be ready to declare Obama the nominee, also causing Superdelegates to move to Obama, completely erasing Clinton's previous Superdelegate lead.

However, the expectations game may swing in Clinton's favor. While a large part of the media etc. assume Obama is the nominee, and expect him to cruise through the rest of the primary, Clinton will likely win the West Virginia primary on Tuesday, maybe even by a huge margin. A big Clinton win may surprise many voters and give her new momentum heading into the important primaries in Oregon and Kentucky on May 20th (Super Tuesday IV anyone?).

With the momentum heading into the May 20th primaries, Clinton will likely win Kentucky and maybe keep the vote close in Oregon, although Obama will almost certainly hold on and win there. With those two wins for Clinton, who knows what could happen? The Florida and Michigan delegate controversies have yet to be decided, and Obama may not reach the required 2,025 delegates to win by then.

Write Idea Rankings: John McCain Twenty VP Picks

In early April John McCain said he had compiled a list of about twenty Vice-Presidential possibilities. This week is a wild guess of the twenty people McCain has on his list, starting with the most likely:

1. MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty

2.Fmr. OH Rep. and former OMB Director Rob Portman

3. FL Gov. Charlie Crist

4. SC Gov. Mark Sanford

5. SD Sen. John Thune

6. Fmr. AR Gov. Mike Huckabee

7. Fmr. MA Gov. Mitt Romney

8. Fmr. CA Rep. and SEC Chair Chris Cox

9. KS Sen. Sam Brownback

10. LA Gov. Bobby Jindal

11. SOS Condoleezza Rice

12. AK Gov. Sarah Palin

13. Fmr. OK Rep. J.C. Watts

14. TX Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison

15. CT Sen. Joe Lieberman

16. WI Rep. Paul Ryan

17. VI Rep. Eric Cantor

18. UT Gov. Jon Huntsman

19. GA Gov. Sonny Perdue

20. MS Gov. Haley Barbour

A Republican Candidate for Attorney General After All...

Those registered Republican voters in Oregon who have received their ballots may have noticed that no Republican filed to run for Attorney General.

If a candidate gets enough write-in votes in a primary election, they can still appear on the ballot in November if they are qualified and accept the nomination. Normally when no candidate from one party files to run for an office, a candidate of the other party organizes a write-in campaign to win the nomination for both parties. This year however, in the Oregon Attorney General’s race there is a tough primary between two Democrats, Greg Macpherson a far-left Legislator, and Professor John Kroger who has taken HUGE donations from unions, making it difficult to run a write-in campaign as well. Also, a lot of usual RINO's, who would typically write in one of the Democrats, will be voting in the important Democratic Presidential primary.

All this leaves an opening for a Republican candidate. Enter Ron Saxton, a former attorney and School Board Chairman who ran for Governor in 2002 and 2006, winning the nomination, but failing to win the general, in 2006.

After the 2006 election Saxton said he was unlikely to seek public office again. However, if he is nominated by write-in votes, he would likely accept the nomination. Saxton has the qualifications, high name-recognition, and fairly moderate positions on the issues that it will take to win the general election.

Republicans should consider writing-in Ron Saxton (that's R-o-n S-a-x-t-o-n) for Attorney General as they vote in the next few weeks (don't forget to fill in the bubble as well). He will need the support of many Republicans to stave off any write-in efforts by the Democratic candidates, so anybody interested in voting for him should tell all their friends, too.

Vice-Presidential Brackett

From NWRepublican:

In a spin off of of the "March Madness" basketball bracketology, the folks at CQ are offering you a chance to pick John McCain's Vice President using a one-on-one bracket format. You can slowly whittle down the potential contenders until you get to your one choice.

This is a must-play for political junkies. Be sure to play soon, the first round ends May 6th.

Politics Unusual Under Attack

On April 15th, Oregon state Representative district 35 candidate Tony Marino released a mea culpa letter to his potential constituents, detailing problems he has had in the past. Here is the letter in full:

Dear Friends and Neighbors:

Our lives are made up of stories. Everyone has their own versions, of course, with
happy endings, struggles and, sometimes, even sad outcomes. I am no different than you or
your friends and family; I have my own stories that make me who I am.

I’ve made mistakes, but I’ve always taken responsibility and faced them head-on.
My wife, my family and friends, all support and love me because I’ve learned from those
mistakes and they make me the person they know today.

One of my stories is that I’ve decided to run for office to represent Tigard, my
hometown, in the Oregon Legislature. I’m running because I know the power of change
and how important it is that when things aren’t going right, you get in there, roll up your
sleeves and make change happen. It’s part of who I am and part of my past and it has made
me a better person. I also know what it feels like to be counted down and out and that’s
exactly how I feel we are treated politically.

But I will not be your usual politician because that’s not who I am. I’m going to
engage in “Politics Unusual” - and I’m going to start by being open and honest with every
single person I hope to represent. I think every politician should start with honesty.

I had a bankruptcy when I was younger. As a struggling young TV Producer, my
show was cancelled and I was left holding the bag for the cost of the equipment and other
expenses that businesses incur as they are starting out. I learned to be more careful with my
investments and my finances from that experience.

I’ve been through divorces. Fresh out of the U.S. Navy I didn’t know what I wanted
out of life or a partner who would share it with me. I made some decisions that at the time
seemed right but, in retrospect, were probably hasty. I’ve learned to slow down and examine
a situation from every possible angle before committing to something now.

I’m still fighting the IRS on an old tax lien. Again, when I was younger, I
overreached financially and unknowingly had some outstanding taxes. Interest and penalties
started to add up when the IRS didn’t contact me about the amount due. Several years later,
I met with them with my attorney to reach a reasonable settlement and they declined. I’m
still fighting for what I believe to be fair and just. I have learned that the government isn’t
always right and that you have to speak up or be counted out.

I have a degree from an online university I’ve learned is not accredited in Oregon.
I was given credit for my life and work experience in the Navy, as a television and radio
personality, as an author and as a successful international marketing consultant. I firmly
believe in investigating alternatives to traditional education to help our children be competitive in a global market. From this experience, I learned to ask more questions and verify what you are told from that experience

Sadly, I expect my political opponents will bombard each of you with those issues from my past - all in an effort to hold on to power and divert the conversation away from what really matters and what they have continually failed to adequately address: accountability in education, reducing traffic congestion, lowering taxes and providing affordable health care.

I, on the other hand, promise to engage each of you in Politics Unusual. That’s exactly why I’m putting myself out, warts and all. I will be honest with you. I will be frank. I will be tough. I will talk about the issues that you care about and not about what has happened in someone’s personal life. That’s who I am and I don’t plan on changing.

My family stands by me and loves me because I’ve not only learned from my past mistakes, but also because of the man I’ve become from those experiences. I’m a proud father of two. I am the loving husband to Danielle, my wife of ten years. I am a U.S. Navy Veteran. I am a small business owner. I am, and have been for over five years, an active member of the Tigard community who is committed to making our community better.

I believe strongly that the person currently representing us in the Oregon Legislature often makes decisions that are not beneficial or address the needs of the majority of good people in this district. I can no longer sit on the sidelines and watch as this community’s views and interests are cast aside in favor of special interests with deep pockets that are out of touch with you and me and our needs. I believe forthright leadership is so important that I am willing to share my past with you, to be honest with you, and ask that you consider a change

I ask that you support Politics Unusual and my campaign for State Representative. I ask that you visit my website and come to my events. I want you to yell at me, argue with me, have fun with me and dust it up with me so that with your help, we can lead ourselves into a better future. I need your support in the form of donations, lawn sign locations and volunteers to make this happen.

I hope when this campaign is over, you can say to your friends and colleagues, “I actually know who my State Representative is and his name is Tony Marino and he is raising heck in Salem for us.”

Thank you for your support,

Tony Marino
Candidate, House District 35


Marino drafted this letter a long time ago, and was waiting for the funds to publish it. He wanted his campaign to be "politics unusual", he wants to be completely honest with the citizens he hopes to represent, even with his PAST personal problems (unlike the incumbent, who refuses to talk about his personal life).

Just as Marino expected, Blue Oregon (a far-left liberal blog) has jumped to attack him with a distorted post. And among other things, showing clips of his letter, and commenting:

"So, this guy wants us to trust his judgment? Unbelievable."

Hmm... maybe they should look at their own candidate, who has his own problems, before going on the attack. Heck, maybe they shouldn't support Barack Obama, who had drug problems when he was younger, if they think that you can't trust the judgement of someone who has had problems in the past.

I think that this is an example of why people are so sick of politics as usual - it's just, attack, attack, attack. Someone is honest about their own shortcomings, and the other side immediately jumps on it. Sad.

To learn more about Tony, you can visit his (awesome) site at www.votetonymarino.com

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